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Writing code against odds, properly.

Methods, formulas and measurement traps — devig, closing line value, variance and market data. Technical content, not tips.

July 20, 2026Pricing8 min read

Same bet, five different EVs: choosing a devig model

On a 6.00 longshot, switching devig models moves your EV by more than a full point. Here is which one to use, market by market.

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July 14, 2026Measurement7 min read

CLV: the only metric that says anything before 1,000 bets

Your ROI over 200 bets proves nothing. Your gap to the closing line does — provided you measure it properly.

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July 6, 2026Risk9 min read

How many bets until you know your edge is real?

With a 2% edge at 1.95, one bettor in three is still down after 500 bets. Here is the maths, and what it means for how you track results.

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June 28, 2026Market7 min read

Anatomy of a line move, from opening to kick-off

A price does not drift randomly: it passes through four regimes, each with different limits and reliability. Knowing which one you are looking at changes when you enter.

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